Fed Hikes for First Time Since July 2023 — 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, 12-0 Unanimous, Dots Signal One More; Bitcoin Holds $76K

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% range on Wednesday — its first rate hike since July 2023 and the first tightening under new Chair Kevin Warsh [1][2].

The vote was unanimous, 12-0 [2][3]. The Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) signals one more rate hike before year-end [1][3]. "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace," the FOMC said in its policy statement, noting that "inflation remains elevated" and "today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal" [1].

At his post-meeting press conference, Warsh said there is nothing the FOMC is seeing that suggests the economy is slowing, framing the move as "we removed a dose of accommodation." He declined to endorse future hikes, saying he won't "prejudge any future Fed moves" — and, as has been his custom, he did not submit his own dot to the projections [3].

Market reaction: Bitcoin traded around $75,400-$75,700 into the decision, briefly moved to $76,300 after the statement, and slipped as the hawkish presser unfolded [3]. The Nasdaq added to gains, up 0.8% [3]. The move comes a day after spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw $593M in combined net outflows following the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act — institutions were already de-risking into the decision [4]. Rate futures had priced the hike at 88-95% probability heading in (CME FedWatch) [3].

Why it matters: the first hike in three years ends the easing cycle that helped power crypto's institutional adoption wave. With the dot plot adding another hike, crypto's cost-of-capital headwind now has a schedule.