Situational Awareness LP, the fund founded by ex-OpenAI superalignment researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, filed a 13F showing $8.46 billion in put options against AI semiconductor companies — 62% of its $13.68 billion total reported value. The puts target NVDA ($1.57B), SMH ETF ($2.04B), ORCL ($1.07B), AVGO ($1.01B), AMD ($969M), and others, while the long side retains AI infrastructure positions (power, data centers, neoclouds) — a barbell strategy betting that AI demand is real but chip stock multiples are overextended.
Situational Awareness LP, the fund founded by ex-OpenAI superalignment researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, filed a 13F showing $8.46 billion in put options against AI semiconductor companies — 62% of its $13.68 billion total reported value. The puts target NVDA ($1.57B), SMH ETF ($2.04B), ORCL ($1.07B), AVGO ($1.01B), AMD ($969M), and others, while the long side retains AI infrastructure positions (power, data centers, neoclouds) — a barbell strategy betting that AI demand is real but chip stock multiples are overextended.
On May 15, 2026, Situational Awareness LP filed its Q1 2026 Form 13F-HR with the SEC, reporting $13.68 billion across 42 information-table entries for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The filing's defining feature: $8.46 billion in put options on AI semiconductor companies, representing approximately 62% of the total reported value.
The Put Positions (Underlying Share Values from SEC Filing)
| Issuer | Ticker | 13F Value | Underlying Shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF | SMH | $2,043M | 5.328M |
| NVIDIA | NVDA | $1,568M | 8.992M |
| Oracle | ORCL | $1,073M | 7.293M |
| Broadcom | AVGO | $1,006M | 3.251M |
| AMD | AMD | $969M | 4.764M |
| Micron Technology | MU | $584M | 1.728M |
| TSMC (ADR) | TSM | $535M | 1.583M |
| ASML (ADR) | ASML | $494M | 0.374M |
| Intel | INTC | $159M | 3.605M |
The SMH ETF put at $2.04 billion is the single largest line — a broad-basket wager against the entire first-order chip complex, not a stock-picker's view on individual names. The Oracle position ($1.07B) is the only enterprise-software name in the put core; notably absent are Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta.
The Barbell, Not a Binary Short
The fund's Q4 2025 13F looked very different — it read like a pure AI infrastructure long book: Bloom Energy, CoreWeave calls, Intel calls, Lumentum, Core Scientific, IREN, Cipher Mining, SanDisk, EQT. Power. Neoclouds. Storage. The names you'd expect from someone who believes AI demand is real and durable.
Q1 2026 keeps that infrastructure long side roughly intact and adds the $8.5 billion bearish chip overlay on top. The pairing reads as: AI demand keeps compounding, the build-out is real, but equity multiples on the first-order chip winners have run ahead of what 2027–2028 capex returns will support. The fund is not betting against artificial intelligence. It is betting that the market is pricing AI compute too narrowly through the same handful of accelerator names.
Who Is Leopold Aschenbrenner
Aschenbrenner (born 2001/2002) was part of OpenAI's Superalignment team before being dismissed in April 2024 over an alleged information leak he disputes. His June 2024 essay, 'Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,' argued that AGI and superintelligence will arrive between 2027 and 2030. He then founded Situational Awareness LP, an investment fund anchored to that thesis. According to public reports, the fund grew from roughly $225 million to approximately $9 billion in AUM over 18 months.
Important Caveats
Form 13F reports option holdings in terms of the underlying security count and dollar value — not option premiums paid, strike prices, expirations, or any paired long positions. The disclosure is a delayed public snapshot as of March 31, 2026. The positions may have been adjusted, closed, or rolled since the reporting date. The filing does not disclose total fund assets, leverage ratios, cash balances, or non-13F positions. Reading this as evidence of a naked short book would be incorrect; it is best understood as a large bearish or hedging option overlay.
Why It Matters for Crypto/AI Sentiment
The positioning matters beyond equities for three reasons. First, AI and crypto are competing for the same marginal dollar of institutional capital — BlackRock's own BII note acknowledged that the AI investment boom is currently pulling capital away from Bitcoin. Second, NVDA is widely held by crypto-adjacent and tech-forward investors; a high-profile bearish signal from an AI insider adds to sentiment pressure. Third, the 21Shares mid-year report (covered in our June 25 scan) explicitly flagged that AI-focused funds are 'cannibalizing' crypto ETP flows — a dynamic that Aschenbrenner's put overlay implicitly reinforces, even if his long side remains AI-bullish on infrastructure.
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